A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
